MidYear Outlook: Still waiting for the Turn
As we reach the halfway point of 2024, a sense of persistence defines the economic and market landscape. Trends from...
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Developments in artificial intelligence may be the antidote for an aging population, but it takes time for these advancements to work themselves into the fabric of our nation's businesses. The impact of new developments can persist in markets, so investors need to carefully discern what could be different this time around. Read More
The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is saddling up as a new electronic stock exchange tobe located in Dallas. Underpinned by a signifi cant investment of $120 million fromindustry heavyweights like BlackRock and Citadel Securities, the TXSE aims to shakeup the status quo and provide another competitive alternative to the globallyrecognized New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ. Read More
Another day and another record high for the broader market. Decelerating consumerinfl ation and limited surprises from the Federal Reserve (Fed) drove the S&P 500 up0.9% yesterday, marking its 28th record high of the year. Buying pressure wasrelatively widespread and powered by above-average volume, somewhat of ananomaly amid the recent rally above the March highs. Read More
With the S&P 500 generating six record highs over the last seven trading sessions — bringing the index’s record-high tally for the year to 31 — it shouldn’t come as a surprise that implied volatility is historically low. Receding expectations for market volatility have primarily been supported by easing inflation pressure, relatively less ambiguous monetary policy, impressive earnings, and a resilient U.S. economy. Read More
After a solid 2023 in which the Bloomberg Municipal Index was up over 6% (including a positive 8% in November and December), it’s been a slow start to the year in 2024. Changing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations and already rich relative value ratios (versus Treasury yields) have, so far, offset still high tax-equivalent yields and solid fundamentals for the asset class. But with the unofficial kick-off to summer behind us, the muni market...
Gold has captured most of the spotlight in the metals complex this year after breaking out to record highs in March. However, copper may be an even more interesting story as the industrial metal has climbed steadily higher in the shadows of the yellow metal, amassing a 19% year-to-date return and topping gold’s gain of around 15% (as of June 5). READ MORE
The technology sector was all the rage last week thanks to strong results from artificial intelligence (AI) darling NVIDIA (NDVA). Generally, a top-performing sector over the past decade, it’s hard to overstate technology’s importance to the market. While the official S&P classification results in a roughly 30% weight for the technology sector in the S&P 500 Index, adding tech-focused powerhouses such as Alphabet (GOOG/L), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA), and others, pushes...
The post-pandemic economy is treating people very differently, creating a headache for central bankers. The extreme differences can often get traced back to living situations, as renters have a very different experience than homeowners. Since millions of homeowners refinanced mortgages to extremely low rates a few years ago, the economy is less sensitive to interest rate policy. In fact, the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium sponsored by the Kansas City Federal Reserve in August will...
When I read the weekend press, I pay attention to several things. Is there turmoil to talk about? Are there earnings to talk about? Are there conflicting economic reports coming out that require us to be prepared for different possible outcomes? This weekend the press was about retirement. What does it mean to you? Should you work longer? Did your spouse pass? Basically, there was so little to discuss that there was the need to...
LPL Research examines the implications of depleted excess savings on consumer spending and the broader economy.
Since the days just preceding Tax-Day, April 15 th, the US equity market has been on a tear upward that started back in October. The US Treasury bond markets seem to have been the reason for this. After the Fed raised interest rates seven times back-to-back, to stave off inflation, the interest rates rolled over. But since the beginning of the year, the bond market has not been having such a good time of it...
With Q1 2024 behind us, we explore top contributors and detractors to performance across various asset classes and sectors. We also compare Q1 performance with our current Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) positioning.
10 Things You Should Know About Politics and Investing
Bullion broke new ground last week after rallying to a record high. Growing investor confidence for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut by this summer dragged down yields and the dollar, creating a tailwind for gold. The breakout above key resistance at $2,075 was also a major technical development, confirmed by bullish momentum that suggests the rally could continue. Global central bank demand has been another key catalyst and has shown no sign of slowing down, while a rebound in demand from gold-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could provide additional support for the yellow metal.
Key Takeaways Energy is struggling to keep up with the broader market this year. However, an improving technical setup for energy stocks points to a potential rebound for the sector. Seasonal tailwinds suggest this inflection point could be near. Crude oil is also making technical progress, and the futures curve is indicating the supply and demand backdrop is improving. Fundamentals remain bullish for the sector. Energy stocks are trading cheap relative to the S&P 500...
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment.
How to age-proof your most valuable asset
For the last number of weeks, I have been talking about how it could be expected that the markets are prepared for a digestion or a minor correction.
Despite a heavy lobbying effort to cajole OPEC+ members to agree to a unified cut in oil production, Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the energy cartel, was unable to orchestrate anything more than pledges on a “voluntary” basis.
Following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) aggressive rate-hiking campaign in 2022 and 2023, stocks are entering a phase in which the market narrative is focused on interest-rate stability — as inflation, we believe, comes down further.
Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could temporarily impact goods prices but not at the same magnitude as during the pandemic.
